Below is a curated record of engagements by region — each underpinned by rigorous quantitative analysis and a deep understanding of local context. From mine closure evaluations to fiscal models and socioeconomic impact studies, this track record reflects two decades of work alongside companies, governments, and development institutions.
This is a curated selection from our track record. If you need additional references or detailed case studies for a tender process, get in touch directly.
How we help stakeholders build the case for mining.
Governments need credible fiscal models to negotiate sound agreements. Companies need rigorous data to demonstrate the value they create. Multilateral institutions need independent analysis to shape policy. The three engagements below — a gold mine in full production in the Dominican Republic, a new tax regime taking effect in Ecuador, and an entire mining sector being modeled for Madagascar's future — show how Malthus Global builds the quantitative backbone that lets every stakeholder make an informed decision.
We work to ensure that every stakeholder — governments, companies, communities and institutions alike — understands, with full information, the economic, fiscal and socioeconomic effects of mining jurisdictions worldwide.
- Operating expenses, ongoing capital & other costsUS$13,565M · 40.9%
- Initial investment (construction capital)US$3,800M · 11.5%
- Initial capital cost adjustmentUS$2,185M · 6.6%
- Company net income after state participationUS$6,327M · 19.1%
- Total state income (royalty, tax & profit participation)US$7,303M · 22.0%
Pueblo Viejo: the full economic footprint of a world-class gold mine
Pueblo Viejo is one of the most important gold mines in the world, and Malthus Global modeled its full economic contribution to the Dominican Republic. Based on reserves of 23.7 million ounces of gold and a fixed price of US$1,400/oz, we projected accumulated net sales of US$33.18 billion over the mine's 25-year life, against US$17.4 billion in combined investment and operating expenditure. The model traced exactly how each dollar of net sales splits between the state — through royalties, income tax and profit participation — and the company, then extended the analysis to trade, GDP, employment, fiscal multipliers and poverty reduction across the mine's area of influence.
Fruta del Norte: modeling Ecuador's most important mining tax structure
Fruta del Norte is the most important mining investment in Ecuador's history, and Malthus Global evaluated the country's tax structure through the lens of this project. The analysis covered royalties, value-added tax, a 15% profit-sharing scheme split between the state and employees, income tax, taxes on capital outflows, import tariffs, and mining conservation rights — distinguishing taxes paid directly by the company from those generated indirectly through its employees and suppliers. We also ran scenario analysis on how a rising gold price would affect collection through windfall taxes and import tariffs. Studies like this one helped open the door to large-scale mining development in Ecuador.
Mining's Share of GDP
Mining's Share of Total Exports
Modeling two decades of mining-led growth for the Government of Madagascar
At the start of Madagascar's 2015 mining boom, Malthus Global helped the Government of Madagascar, the World Bank, GIZ and the mining sector build economic scenarios — covering GDP, exports and taxation — for the following two decades. We modeled the potential contribution of critical minerals such as nickel and cobalt, alongside ilmenite and iron ore, to an economy where mining accounted for just 1% of GDP in 2012. Under our scenarios, mining's share of GDP could reach 4–14% by 2025, while mining exports could grow from 8% of total exports in 2012 to as much as 54% by 2025 — though most of those earnings would flow to investors abroad rather than directly improving the balance of payments, underscoring that the opportunity only becomes development with the right mechanisms for distributing its benefits locally.
Critical minerals in Queensland: modeling the full economic footprint of a $1 billion output expansion
The Queensland Government commissioned Malthus Global to estimate the economic impact scenarios of a $1,000 million output expansion in the critical minerals sector on the state's Gross Regional Product. Our analysis shows the direct injection would increase value-added by $270.3 million, support 691 FTE jobs, and generate $104.5 million in wages and salaries.
From this direct expansion, flow-on supply-chain effects from local purchases of goods and services are estimated to add a further $798.5 million in output, 1,811 additional FTE jobs, $170.5 million in wages, and $315.9 million in value-added. Including consumption-driven effects, total output reaches $2,204.8 million — a Type 2 multiplier of 2.205. Total value-added across the economy reaches $793.5 million — a Type 2 multiplier of 2.936.